Last summer, Len Jelinek, director and chief analyst at iSuppli, stuck his neck out and called the end of Moore's Law as an economic driver in 2014. Pause for a moment over that claim. It was not that Moore's Law would not necessarily end in 2014 but the economic imperative for scaling the dimensions further on silicon would come to a screeching halt. Development per se need not stop. The problem is that rising cost could so easily outweigh the advantages of going further than the 20nm or 18nm node.
It should probably be called the Moore-Noyce Law because it was Bob Noyce, Moore's colleague at Fairchild and then Intel, who came up with the pricing model that meant Moore's Law became the key to predicting a market sector driven by deflation. But if that pricing model - which has typically meant close to a halving in production cost with each generation shift - begins to fail, then the reasons for pushing ahead on scaling also break down.